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MARCH 15,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:15 P.M. ET:

OBAMA NOT GALLUPING – President Obama has dropped to 39% approval in the Gallup Poll, with 55% disapproving.  A year ago he was hovering around 50% approval.

AIRLINER – Latest reports say that most of the attention is now being focused on the cockpit crew of the vanished Malaysian airliner.  Most investigators now believe that the plane was flown, by an experienced pilot, to wherever it went, and that it's unlikely that someone broke into the cockpit, 9-11 style.  Malaysian police visiting the homes of the pilot and co-pilot today.  There are some initial reports that the pilot had very definite, and controversial, political views, but that is unconfirmed.  Was there a conspiracy between pilot and co-pilot?  Did one take over the plane and disable the other?  These are theories.  But the notion that the plane was flown wilfully off its course is being accepted by the majority of knowledgeable commentators as fact.

RAND PAUL WINS NEW ENGLAND POLL – From WPA Opinion Research:  "NASHUA, NH – WPA Opinion Research announced today that Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) has won this weekend’s Northeast Republican Leadership Presidential Survey capturing almost 15% of the vote.  'What this survey tells is that is that no one candidate has really separated themselves from the potential field in 2016,' said Ryan Steusloff Vice President of WPA Opinion Research. 'At this point, the nomination is completely up-for-grabs and of the would-be contenders, no one can be ruled out just yet.'"  That's correct.  Getting 15% of the vote is not a famous victory.  These are fun polls, at best.  You can see all the poll results here.

March 15, 2014       Permalink

BAD MOVE, BUT VERY OBAMAN – AT 11:04 A.M. ET:  The United States is giving up whatever control it has left over the internet.  This is very bad, as it may well increase the level of influence over the internet held by some very bad international actors.  From WaPo:   

U.S. officials announced plans Friday to relinquish federal government control over the administration of the Internet, a move that pleased international critics but alarmed some business leaders and others who rely on the smooth functioning of the Web.

Pressure to let go of the final vestiges of U.S. authority over the system of Web addresses and domain names that organize the Internet has been building for more than a decade and was supercharged by the backlash last year to revelations about National Security Agency surveillance.

The change would end the long-running contract between the Commerce Department and the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), a California-based nonprofit group. That contract is set to expire next year but could be extended if the transition plan is not complete.

And...

The announcement received a passionate response, with some groups quickly embracing the change and others blasting it.

In a statement, Senate Commerce Committee Chairman John D. Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.) called the move “consistent with other efforts the U.S. and our allies are making to promote a free and open Internet, and to preserve and advance the current multi-stakeholder model of global Internet governance.”

But former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) tweeted: “What is the global internet community that Obama wants to turn the internet over to? This risks foreign dictatorships defining the internet.”

COMMENT:  Newt is right, as usual.  Whenever I read phrases like "the international community" I run for cover.  There is no "international community."  There are individual nations with their own interests, who sometimes form clubs, like NATO. 

The internet is the most powerful informational tool in history.  I prefer a high degree of American control, which the Obamans are now giving up.  If you want to see the corrupt world of the "international community," visit the UN.

March 15, 2014       Permalink

UKRAINE LATEST – AT 10:29 A.M. ET:   Crimea votes tomorrow on whether to break off from Ukraine and align with Russia, a vote the West considers illegal.  And diplomatic attempts to resolve the crisis have failed.  From AFP:

London (AFP) - The United States and Russia failed Friday to resolve a Cold-War-style standoff sparked by Moscow's military intervention in Crimea, as the clock ticks down to the region's vote on splitting from Ukraine.

US Secretary of State John Kerry flew in early Friday for whirlwind talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in London, with few illusions that Sunday's Moscow-backed referendum in the strategic Black Sea peninsula could be averted or delayed.

But US hopes of at least winning assurances from Lavrov that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not move swiftly to annex Crimea and that Russian troops would be pulled back to their barracks were broadly dashed.

Kerry found himself at check-mate when Lavrov "made it clear that President Putin is not prepared to make any decision regarding Ukraine until after the referendum on Sunday," the top US diplomat told reporters.

While Washington still hopes Moscow will not take the extra step of actually annexing the Crimea region of two million mostly Russian speakers, officials admitted they were now in a nail-biting wait-and-see mode.

Kerry also warned against the Russian parliament or Duma ratifying Sunday's vote which he said would amount to a "backdoor ratification" -- a move that would trigger sanctions and escalate the biggest East-West showdown since the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

Despite six hours of talks, including two long tete-a-tete walks in the grounds of the lavish US ambassador's residence in central London, Lavrov said Russia and the West remained far apart on Ukraine.

"We have no common vision of the situation," said Lavrov.

And he hinted that Moscow was now resolved to bring Crimea under its eventual control.

"Everyone understands -- and I say this with all responsibility -- what Crimea means to Russia, and that it means immeasurably more than the Comoros (archipelago) for France or the Falklands for Britain."

Kerry again warned the international community would not recognise the results of the referendum and said if it goes ahead "there will be some sanctions, here will be some response."

COMMENT:  The problem here is that Kerry represents a weakened United States and a president who has lost credibility all over the world.  What, really, do the Russians have to fear?  Sanctions?   It's unlikely the West Europeans would agree to severe sanctions anyway.  Indeed, watching America fade as a world power, and cut its defense budget under the country's first truly leftist president, many countries might start cozying up to Russia, just as they are cozying up to Iran. 

No foreign enemy could today be doing as much damage to America as its own president is doing.  I hate to sound conspiratorial, but did we elect the Manchurian candidate?

March 15, 2014       Permalink

AIRLINER LATEST – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  The news has been coming quickly regarding the disappearance of the Malaysian airliner.  The government of Malaysia now says, with a high degree of confidence, that the airliner was diverted intentionally in a criminal act, and wilfully sent on a new flight path.  And we now learn that it may have been flying for as many as seven hours after being seized.  From Fox:

Investigators trying to solve the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner have sharpened their focus on passengers and crew after concluding that the Boeing 777 had its communications deliberately disabled and was airborne for hours after it vanished, Malaysia's leader said Saturday.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said at a press conference that investigators now know that the airliner's communications devices were deliberately disabled and that its last signal came about 7 1/2 hours after takeoff, meaning it could have ended up as far as Kazakhstan or deep in the southern Indian Ocean.

"In view of this latest development, the Malaysian authorities have refocused their investigation into the crew and passengers on board," Najib said, stressing they were still investigating all possibilities as to why the plane deviated so drastically from its original flight path.

COMMENT:  The prime minister's statement tends to confirm reporting in The Wall Street Journal and other American news outlets.  However, before he spoke the belief was that the plane flew only four hours after its last contact.  Now the number is seven and a half hours after takeoff, or about six hours after the last contact.

The speculation continues.  Assuming this latest information is true, the plane could have reached land somewhere in south and central Asia.  However, landing a plane that large without detection by satellites would be extremely difficult.

We've been following this closely.  Obviously, there are several scenarios:  a hijack by terrorists with political motives; a hijack by others with different motives; a wilful action by a member of the crew.

Malaysia is a Muslim country.  There were Malaysians aboard the flight, but there were also a number of Chinese citizens aboard, and China has been the scene of recent Muslim terrorist acts.

March 15,  2014     Permalink

MARCH 14,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:21 P.M. ET: 

RELIGIOUS BULLETIN – From International Business Times:  "A Saudi cleric named Saleh al-Fawzan has issued a fatwa against all-you-can-eat buffets in Saudi Arabia. He made the statement on a Saudi Quranic TV station.  Fawzan said the value and quantity of the food sold should be pre-determined beforehand.  'Whoever enters the buffet and eats for 10 or 50 riyals without deciding the quantity they will eat is violating Sharia (Islamic) law,' Fawzan was quoted on al-Atheer channel.  The fatwa attempts to add plate piling eateries to the long list of things outlawed by religious edicts. It has been the subject of condemnation and debate on social media channels."  About time someone took on this menace.  I'll sleep better tonight.

YOUTH ABANDONING OBAMA – From liberal writer Dana Milbank, at the Washington Post:  "An army of 15 million voters under 30 swept Obama past Hillary Clinton and John McCain and to the presidency in 2008. More than 12 million helped him return in 2012. But now his presidency is on the line — and the Obama youth are abandoning him in his hour of need.  The administration announced last week that only 1.08 million people ages 18 to 34 had signed up for Obamacare by the end of February, or about 25 percent of total enrollees. If the proportion doesn’t improve significantly, the result likely will be fatal for the Affordable Care Act."  For Republicans, the defection is an opportunity, but Republicans are not brilliant about capitalizing on opportunities.  The party must demonstrate to the new generation that GOP ideas will improve their lot.

THANKS SARAH AND MITT – From the Washington Times:  "The majority of Americans see Russia as a serious threat to the U.S. and about half think another Cold War could break out as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a poll released Friday found.  The CNN/ORC International poll reported that 69 percent of Americans see Russia as a serious threat to the U.S. — up 25 percent from 2012 and the highest in a decade."  When Sarah Palin said in 2008 that the Russians might invade Ukraine, she was laughed at.  When Mitt Romney said during the 2012 campaign that Russia was becoming our major adversary, he too was laughed at.  I hope the laughing has stopped.

FLASH – We are getting a preliminary report from AP that Malaysian authorities have concluded that the airliner that disappeared last week was hijacked and steered off course.  More on this tomorrow morning.

March 14, 2014       Permalink 

HILARIOUS, BUT ALSO SAD – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  This is not the most important story around, or even on the top-ten list.  But it's too juicy to ignore.  From Fox: 

Colorado colleges and universities have seen a dramatic jump in applications, including from out of state, following the legalization of marijuana, but officials insist there’s no drug connection.

Applications to the University of Colorado are up 30 percent since Amendment 64 made recreational pot legal, according to Director of Admissions Kevin MacLennan. But while several marijuana advocates told FoxNews.com it is hardly surprising that the Centennial State would become a mecca for college-bound tokers, MacLennan disagrees.

“We aren’t getting a lot of questions about this,” MacLennan said, referring to the new law.

He said a better explanation for the rise in applications is increased recruitment at high schools across the country and abroad and the university’s adoption of the Common Application, which facilitates students’ ability to apply to multiple schools around the nation using a single form.

Colorado College has also seen a rise in applications, but Mark Hatch, vice president for enrollment, said it is part of a longer-term trend.

“This year is no different, so there is no evidence that our increase [is tied] to Amendment 64,” Hatch told FoxNews.com in an email.

COMMENT:  I have not examined this with scientific precision, but I'd imagine that the marijuana issue is playing a larger role than the college executives would like us to believe.  I mean, if I were running a university, I wouldn't want people to think that students are in my school because pot is plentiful, and legal.  But hey, man, Colorado is a blast.  Right, man?  Hey, is that light green or red?

March 14, 2014       Permalink

UKRAINE COUNTDOWN – AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  The United States has given Russia until Monday to alter its Ukraine policy...or else.  Or else what?  Remember, it's Obama.  "Or else" usually means we'll fret and whine and mention "sanctions," and then the president will go to Hawaii.  From Fox:

American diplomats are warning Russia that it will face "very serious" consequences by Monday if the country does not stand down on Ukraine, as they scramble to prevent Moscow from annexing the disputed Crimea region.

Secretary of State John Kerry, in a last-ditch bid to convince Russia to cooperate, met in London on Friday morning with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He spoke briefly with Lavrov over the phone in advance of the meeting, and according to the State Department reiterated the administration's concerns about the upcoming referendum on Sunday -- when Crimea residents are set to vote on whether to join Russia.

A small group of Ukrainian protesters with posters reading "NATO Save Ukraine" awaited Kerry as he arrived at Downing Street for an earlier meeting with Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron and Foreign Secretary William Hague ahead of his talks with Lavrov.

Cameron underlined the threat of sanctions when he sat down with Kerry, telling him that "we want to see progress as much as you do."

"We want to see Ukrainians and the Russians talking to each other. And if they don't then there are going to have to be consequences," he added.

Kerry thanked his British hosts for their strong position, saying that "we're all hoping that we don't get pushed into a place where we have to do all this. But we'll see what happens."

The Sunday referendum has the potential to significantly escalate the crisis. Asked Thursday what would happen if Crimea votes to leave Ukraine and the Russian government approves it, Kerry vowed "a response" to the referendum itself.

"In addition, if there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue, there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday in Europe and here with respect the options that are available to us," Kerry told a Senate panel.

COMMENT:  Ah, those serious steps.  Like the serious steps Obama has taken in Syria, in Libya, in North Korea, in China.  All serious steps.

We'll wait.  No one wants a military confrontation, but Russia must be dealt with firmly, short of military action.  The trump card here is probably held by Germany, the strongest nation in Europe, which is heavily dependent on its economic links with Russia, and has been reluctant to confront Moscow too powerfully.

March 14,  2014     Permalink

GREAT SCOTT? – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  Former Republican Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown seems to be getting closer and closer for another Senate run...from New Hampshire.  From CBS and AP: 

Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown has decided to form an exploratory committee for a possible Senate run in New Hampshire, according to a CBS News report.

Brown has also begun seeking campaign staff while aggressively courting New Hampshire’s political elite, marking what local Republicans consider serious steps toward launching a Senate campaign against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

The forming of an exploratory committee officially allows him to begin raising money and hiring staff. An official announcement has not yet been made.

The longtime Massachusetts resident recently relocated to his seacoast New Hampshire vacation home.

Brown spent much of the past two weeks calling key New Hampshire Republican officials and influential GOP activists, saying he was going to run and seeking their support. At the same time, Brown’s camp has quietly begun offering paid positions to Republican operatives for a prospective New Hampshire campaign.

Several people involved in the discussions said some in the GOP establishment remain skeptical given the former Republican senator’s recent track record. The 54-year-old Brown angered Massachusetts Republicans last year after indicating he would run in the state’s special U.S. Senate election, only to change his mind late in the process.

“He’s been reaching out to opinion leaders, to grassroots activists, getting a sense of, ‘Would you be supporting a Scott Brown campaign,’” said former New Hampshire Rep. Frank Guinta, who is running again for Congress and was included in Brown’s outreach efforts. “That, to me, says he’s serious. But I think only Scott Brown knows if Scott Brown is going to run.”

Democrats hope he does not.

While recent polls give Shaheen a solid lead in a prospective matchup, Brown’s near-universal name recognition in a state that shares a media market with Massachusetts and his national fundraising network would make him a serious contender on Day One should he enter the race.

COMMENT:  I hope he runs, but I think it will be very difficult.  Even though he comes from neighboring Massachusetts, and has a home in New Hampshire, some will still see him as a carpetbagger and an opportunist. 

Also, Shaheen, while vulnerable, is not a left-wing nut case.  She'll run a good campaign.  Of course, if Scott can defeat her, it's one more GOP senator in the battle to take control of the Senate.

March 14, 2014       Permalink

AIRLINER LATEST – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  This updates our entry in "Short Takes" last night.  From Reuters: 

Military radar data suggests a Malaysia Airlines jetliner missing for nearly a week was deliberately flown hundreds of miles off course, heightening suspicions of foul play among investigators, sources told Reuters on Friday.

Analysis of the Malaysia data suggests the plane, with 239 people on board, diverted from its intended northeast route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and flew west instead, using airline flight corridors normally employed for routes to the Middle East and Europe, said sources familiar with investigations into the Boeing 777′s disappearance.

Two sources said an unidentified aircraft that investigators believe was Flight MH370 was following a route between navigational waypoints when it was last plotted on military radar off the country’s northwest coast.

This indicates that it was either being flown by the pilots or someone with knowledge of those waypoints, the sources said.

The last plot on the military radar’s tracking suggested the plane was flying toward India’s Andaman Islands, a chain of isles between the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they said.

Waypoints are geographic locations, worked out by calculating longitude and latitude, that help pilots navigate along established air corridors.

A third source familiar with the investigation said inquiries were focusing increasingly on the theory that someone who knew how to fly a plane deliberately diverted the flight.

“What we can say is we are looking at sabotage, with hijack still on the cards,” said that source, a senior Malaysian police official.

COMMENT:  Is it possible that the plane was hijacked, and then crashed when passengers or crew attempted to take it back?  Remember, that's exactly what happened with United Flight 93 on September 11, 2001.  That was the plane, apparently headed for Washington, that crashed in Pennsylvania when passengers attempted to retake it.

I'm also struck by the statement that the route the plane presumably took was one normally used for routes to the Middle East and Europe.  Hmm.  The Middle East?  If the plane was hijacked, were the hijackers attempting to take it the Middle East, land it, and exchange the passengers for prisoners held somewhere?

This is speculation, but it's what some people are suggesting.

March 14,  2014     Permalink